It seems Harry the Crocodile was the only one to successfully predict the outcome of the 2010 Australian Federal election. Otherwise, it was not a good election for Australia’s political prognosticators.

First, they didn’t predict that Rudd would be ousted as leader by his party.  After the Rudd coup, they predicted that Julia Gillard would ‘romp home’ at the next election, and even increase Labor’s majority. Once it was clear that Labor was not doing that well, there were predictions that Labor would still win with a slight margin of around 5 seats.

Why were the predictions so poor? One reason was the conventional wisdom that Tony Abbott, the Liberal party leader, was ‘unelectable’ and that he would reduce the Liberals to a ‘reactionary rump’. When Abbott was elected Liberal party leader, many saw this as a move that would ensure the Coalition to remain in opposition for years to come. Yet he managed to bring down Kevin Rudd and then brought his party back to within range of winning back government. Predictors underestimated the dissatisfaction voters had with Labor, but also the speed with which they warmed to Tony Abbott.

There was also a tendency of Australian political pundits to rely on bookmakers. Yes, bookmakers have had a good run at predicting elections in the past, but it is surprising how much faith pundits and journalists put in these prognostications. There is a reason it’s called gambling. Hopefully after this election, they won’t simply assume that the bookmakers always get it right, and instead will give the election some serious thought.

Another piece of conventional wisdom that should be thrown on the scrap heap is that Australian voters never vote out first term governments. After this election, it should be clear that Australian voters are willing to throw out a first term government if it doesn’t perform. Yes, Gillard got home in the end, but it had nothing to do with the fact that the Australian electorate was giving her government a second chance.

Australia is now in unknown political territory. It will be interesting to see how the experts and pundits predict things unfolding in the weeks and months to come.

Thanks to those who have submitted predictions. Keep them coming, by posting a submission here.