Freakanomics: The Folly of Prediction

Posted on 15/09/2011

Freakanomics has an interesting podcast on why there are so many bad predictions.

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Blake Hounshell: Bashar al-Assad is going down

Posted on 08/08/2011

Blake Hounshell says that the noose around Bashar al-Assad’s neck is getting tighter.

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Future Babble: why expert predictions are wrong — and why we believe them anyway

Posted on 21/07/2011

Dan Gardner shows how pundits who are more famous are less accurate — and the average expert is no more accurate than a flipped coin.

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Harry Reid: Libya intervention will be ‘over before you know it’

Posted on 19/06/2011

Harry Reid says that the coalition military intervention in Libya will be ‘over before you know it.’

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Peter Beinart: Obama Will Be Re-Elected

Posted on 07/06/2011

Peter Beinart predicts that U.S. President Barack Obama will be re-elected in 2012.

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Lawrence O’Donnell: Palin Won’t Run

Posted on 31/05/2011

Lawrence O’Donnell makes the case that Palin won’t run for president.

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Richard Adams: Sarah Palin to Announce Presidential Bid

Posted on 31/05/2011

Richard Adams predicts that Sarah Palin will announce that she is running for president at the end of her U.S. bus tour.

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IMF: Chinese Economy Will Surpass U.S. By 2016

Posted on 27/04/2011

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) now predicts that the size of China’s economy will surpass America’s by 2016.

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James Clapper: Muammar Gaddafi will prevail

Posted on 17/03/2011

The US national intelligence director has predicted embattled Libyan leader Col Muammar Gaddafi will defeat the rebels challenging his grip on power.

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Economists predict: 7.7 percent unemployment on Election Day 2012

Posted on 14/03/2011
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